Monday, 18 September 2017

Quibans 70: Commuting by train

As part of an article about commuting an article from the Daily Telegraph includes an information box.

It gives numbers and what they stand for.  Match them up.

700 million

100 million

2.99 million

139,000

4.6pc

Journeys made by season ticket holders out of Waterloo station alone

Average amount of weekday morning trains at peak times that were overcrowded

Number of people commuting more than two hours per day in 2014, an increase of 72pc in 10 years

The number of journeys made by season ticket holders across the UK in 2014-15.

Number of people forced to stand every morning on peak trains into the capital - an increase of 19,000 in a year





Here is the box in full:



Questions:

1) What percentage of journeys that were made in 2014-15 involve Waterloo station?

2) How many season ticket holders are there?

3) How many people commuted for more than two hours per day ten years previously?

4) What percentage of season ticket holders travelled longer than 2 hours?

5) By what percentage did the number of people forced to stand on trains into London rise by?

6) If that percentage increase continues, how long will it be before half a million people are standing?  Is this realistic?


Answers:

1) 100/700 = 14.2857...%  Given that the two numbers are clearly not exact it would be appropriate to give the percentage as 14%.

2) This is difficult!  700 million journeys per day.  If a passenger takes more than one train does that count as more than one journey?  How many days per year will they travel?  48 working weeks x 5 days = 240 work-days per year, which will be at least 480 journeys (there and back) per person.  Some will take more than one train so let's call that 500 journeys per person on average.  700 million / 500 = 1.4 million commuters.

3) 2.99 million is 172% of the 10-years-ago value.  Back then it was 2.99 million / 1.72 = 1.74 million

4) 139000 out of 1.4 million = 9.9%.  Call it 10%

5)  In the previous year 120,000 people stood on their train and it rose by 19,000.  This is a 15.8% rise (16%)

6) We need 120 * 1.16^n > 500.  Then we need to subtract 1 from n.  Use a spreadsheet to see that n=10 is the first time 500 is breached.  So a further 9 years will be required.  This involves major extrapolation, so is unlikely to be accurate.


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