Tuesday 5 April 2016

Quibans 26: Fewer Shoppers

From the Cambridge News:

Cambridge is losing shoppers as footfall drops - but high parking charges 'not to blame'


High street footfall in Cambridge city centre has dropped almost twice the national average over the past year, the News can reveal.

Some 153,323 fewer people took to the streets of Cambridge in the first 12 weeks of 2016, with footfall decreasing to 3,846,559 from the equivalent 3,999,882 last year.

The figures, collected by Cambridge BID through footfall cameras, mark a reduction of ### per cent – significantly higher than the UK-wide decline of 2.12 per cent.

But Ian Sandison, chairman of Cambridge BID, said the decline was "small" and needed to be looked at in a wider context of changing shopping habits driven by technology and click and collect.

The data, from Bridge Street and Sidney Street, was calculated until the end of week 12 – which this year (2016) included Easter Sunday – but does not include Easter 2015 as it fell slightly later.

Kevin Blencowe, executive councillor for planning policy and transport at Cambridge City Council, said he did not believe the cost of city centre parking lay behind the decline.

"It's hard to tell what the factors are," he said. "Clearly online shopping has an impact but I would have thought that would even out over the year.

"Traditionally the early weeks of the new year are quiet in retail terms with people having spent a lot of money in the Christmas season so there's always a lull."

Possible questions:
  1. What is the percentage reduction?
  2. Is it reasonable to describe this as a drop of "almost twice the national average"?
  3. How many people are there per week?
  4. 12 weeks is 12x7 = 84 days.  Why can't we divide the total number of people by 84 to get the number of people per day?
  5. What effect might Easter have?
  6. Why are the two quotes from the councillor irrelevant?
Answers:
  1. 153323/3999882 = 3.83%
  2. It is 1.8 times the national average, which is "almost twice", so this is reasonable
  3. 3846559/12 = 320546.6 - this needs to be rounded sensibly (to 32,000 ?).  This is an average.
  4. This would only work if there were same number of people per day.  Presumably there are more on a Saturday and on weekend evenings.
  5. Maybe fewer people go shopping on Easter weekend?  Maybe people go and shop on the two bank holidays?  (Could be fewer people, could be more people!)
  6. The article compares the first 12 weeks of 2015 with the first 12 weeks of 2016, so any post-Christmas lull would be similar in both years.

Source:

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